29
2013
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10
Weekly International Stainless Steel Dynamics
The closure of two major nickel mines may lead to a reduction of 33,000 tons in nickel market supply in 2014. According to foreign media reports, in the past week, two major nickel mines announced production cuts, which are expected to result in a decrease of 33,000 tons in the nickel market supply for 2014. Brazil's Votorantim Metals announced that it will temporarily close the Fortaleza de Minas nickel plant due to the current poor market conditions. The company stated that the decision to halt production stems from a severe imbalance between global nickel supply and demand, leading to a significant drop in nickel prices. The nickel plant has an annual production capacity of 18,000 tons and is scheduled to cease operations in November this year.
The closure of two major nickel mines may lead to a reduction of 33,000 tons in nickel market supply in 2014. According to foreign media reports, two major nickel mines announced production cuts last week, which are expected to result in a decrease of 33,000 tons in the nickel market supply for 2014. Brazil's Votorantim Metals announced that it will temporarily close the Fortaleza de Minas nickel plant due to poor market conditions. The company stated that the decision to halt production stems from a severe imbalance between global nickel supply and demand, leading to a significant drop in nickel prices. The plant has an annual production capacity of 18,000 tons and is scheduled to cease operations in November this year. The shutdown will also affect Australia's Mirabela Nickel, as it has an agreement with Votorantim to process half of its nickel concentrate in Brazil. Additionally, Glencore-Xstrata recently announced the temporary closure of the Falcondo nickel mine in the Dominican Republic. This mine produced 15,186 tons of nickel in 2012, equivalent to nickel pig iron. Barclays Capital expects that once Indonesia's nickel mine export policy becomes clearer in January next year, more nickel mines will announce production cuts or closures. Barclays wrote in its investment advice that given the estimated global nickel surplus of 86,000 tons in 2014, the impact of the production cuts from the two mines is quite significant. However, the timing of the production cut announcements is somewhat unexpected, as the risks of supply disruption in the nickel market due to Indonesia's export ban still exist, and the export ban may boost nickel prices. This year, nickel prices have fallen by about 20%, underperforming all other base metals, and due to the worsening surplus, nickel prices are expected to remain under pressure. Barclays expects the average nickel price this year to be $15,048 per ton, and $14,000 per ton in 2014. Last Friday, LME nickel closed at $13,635 per ton. Japanese nickel-based scrap stainless steel prices remain stable at the beginning of October. According to foreign media reports, the nickel price for scrap stainless steel purchased by Japanese stainless steel mills in October remains at the level of 143,000-144,000 yen per ton in September. Due to Nisshin Steel and Nippon Yakin Kogyo conducting blast furnace maintenance in October and November respectively, production has been advanced, and scrap stainless steel demand is expected to increase. However, this increase in demand is short-term, and it is expected to return to normal afterward, with scrap stainless steel prices expected to fall back to 142,000-143,000 yen per ton, a decrease of 1,000 yen per ton from the current level, but the psychological price level for stainless steel mills is at 135,000 yen per ton. It is reported that the nickel price for scrap stainless steel purchased by South Korea's POSCO in October has dropped by 70 won per kilogram (6.3 yen per kilogram), although some forecasts suggest a price drop of 100 won per kilogram, it has not yet reached that level.