2016

After the holiday, nickel prices have plummeted uncontrollably and may enter a period of fluctuation.

After the short holiday, London nickel once surged to 9,700 USD/ton, closing up 0.9%, with moving average indicators showing a bullish arrangement. However, due to the decline in surrounding markets, London nickel was dragged down, facing resistance in its upward movement, and the strengthening US dollar index put pressure on prices, leading to a closing drop of 1.1%. Market confidence has waned, and commodities are cooling down. As the weekend approaches, benefiting from short covering positions and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, the US dollar index rose to a one-week high. The strengthening US dollar index has put pressure on commodities, leading to bearish sentiment, and concentrated selling resulted in a chaotic drop for London nickel, which fell by 5.16%. The support level is around 8,850 USD/ton, and a rebound may occur in the short term.

After the short holiday, London nickel once surged to 9700 USD/ton, closing up 0.9%, with moving average indicators showing a bullish arrangement. However, due to the decline in surrounding markets, London nickel was dragged down, facing resistance in its upward movement, and the strengthening US dollar index put pressure on prices, closing down 1.1%. Market confidence has fallen, and commodity prices are cooling off. As the weekend approaches, benefiting from short covering positions and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials, the US dollar index rose to a one-week high. The strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on commodities, leading to a bearish outlook, and concentrated selling caused London nickel to lose control, plummeting 5.16%. The support level is around 8850 USD/ton, and a rebound may occur in the short term. In terms of operations, at the beginning of the week, driven by rising oil prices, London nickel rose and then fell back. Although May is at the end of the peak season, the downstream consumption will not suddenly deteriorate, so nickel prices are still supported to rise in the short term. London nickel is in a state of fluctuation and adjustment, and it is recommended to continue holding long positions. On Thursday, London nickel fluctuated. Although the released US data was generally favorable, the ADP data severely underperformed expectations, making the market hesitant to be overly optimistic about the US economic situation. Therefore, the expectation of a rate hike in June remains low, and London nickel continues to be treated as a fluctuating adjustment market. In terms of nickel futures operations, the strategy is mainly to sell high and buy low. As the weekend approaches, London nickel was hit by shorts, resulting in a crash-like decline, closing with a huge bearish candlestick that directly broke through the previous support level of 9000 points, and the entire moving average pattern has completely turned downward. However, after the sharp drop in London nickel, there will inevitably be some recovery, and the operation should focus on shorting at highs; in the spot market, downstream operations are based on demand, and the probability of continued weakness in the short term is relatively high. In the spot market, at the beginning of the week, nickel prices continued to be strong, actively raising factory prices. Nickel futures continued to be strong, and Jinchuan Group actively raised the factory price of nickel plates. In the Shanghai spot market, Jinchuan nickel was reported around 72,500, while Russian nickel was reported around 72,100. In the morning, some merchants replenished their stocks, but the volume was not large. On Wednesday, nickel prices faced resistance in rising, and nickel futures fell during the day. In the Shanghai spot market, Jinchuan nickel was reported around 72,700, while Russian nickel was reported around 72,200. Nickel futures turned, and merchants' willingness to buy decreased, resulting in poor transactions. On Thursday, nickel futures entered a state of fluctuation, with Jinchuan's factory price remaining high. In the Shanghai spot market, Jinchuan nickel was reported around 72,800, while Russian nickel was reported around 72,500. The rising momentum was hindered, suppressing traders' buying interest, and transactions were not many. As the weekend approaches, nickel futures fell sharply, and merchants lowered their nickel plate quotes. In the Shanghai spot market, Jinchuan nickel was reported around 70,100, while Russian nickel was reported around 69,600. Traders are mostly observing, and downstream replenishment has slightly increased. In summary, in April, nickel prices benefited from a bullish atmosphere in the commodity market and steadily rose, becoming one of the best-performing base metal varieties. However, without significant improvement in the fundamentals, the continuous rise has also accumulated considerable risks. After the short holiday, in the context of weakening surrounding markets, concentrated selling led to a lack of upward momentum in nickel prices, resulting in a sharp decline. After this week's drop, the risks in nickel prices have been significantly released. From a technical perspective, the upward channel of nickel futures has been broken. Considering macroeconomic and industry supply-demand factors, it is expected that nickel prices will enter a state of fluctuation.

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